Adobe's $275 Billion Holiday 2026 Forecast and Your Pre-BFCM Checks

Adobe forecasts that US shoppers will spend a record $275.1 billion online between November 1 and December 31, up 6.7% from last year, even as consumer sentiment has fallen. Mobile is expected to drive 57.4% of that spending, and traffic from AI tools keeps growing. With about six weeks to Black Friday, here are the checks we'd run now.

Shoppers at a busy Christmas market at night under string lights

Published Oct 14, 2026. Author: Ecomm Guys. 4 min read.

Key Points

Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion in US online holiday spending, up 6.7% year over year.
Cyber Week is expected to bring $47.5 billion, with Cyber Monday the biggest day at $15.1 billion.
Mobile is forecast to drive 57.4% of online spending, up from 56.4% last season.
Adobe expects AI traffic to US retail sites to rise 130% year over year.
Discounts are expected to peak at up to 30% during Cyber Week.

The Forecast

Adobe's forecast covers November 1 to December 31 and puts US online spending at $275.1 billion, up 6.7%. As Adweek noted, that comes while consumer sentiment has fallen 15% this year, based on a September University of Michigan survey. Adobe's data is based on more than 1 trillion visits to US retail sites.

Adobe expects the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday to bring $47.5 billion, up 7.4%, or 17.3% of the season. Cyber Monday, on November 30, is forecast at $15.1 billion, up 6.2%. Black Friday is forecast at $12.9 billion, up 9.2%, and Thanksgiving Day at $6.9 billion, up 8.5%. As in the last two years, Black Friday is expected to grow faster than Cyber Monday.

Where the Spending Goes

Adobe expects electronics to lead at $63.3 billion, up 5.9%, followed by apparel at $51.3 billion, up 4.7%, and furniture at $33.4 billion, up 7.3%. Grocery is forecast to grow fastest among the large categories, up 10.3% to $26.1 billion. Toys and cosmetics are each expected to grow by more than 9%.

Discounts are forecast to peak at up to 30% during Cyber Week. Adobe expects smaller discounts on either side: up to 14% in early November, rising to 21% in the days before Thanksgiving, and 10% to 15% in December. That timing supports keeping your deepest offers for Cyber Week and using lighter, earlier offers to capture shoppers who start early. Buy now, pay later is expected to reach $21.3 billion, up 6.6%, with 82% of it on mobile.

Mobile and AI Keep Growing

Adobe forecasts that mobile will drive 57.4% of online spending this season, up from 56.4% last year, and 63% on Thanksgiving Day. Traffic from AI tools to US retail sites is expected to rise 130% year over year. In an Adobe survey of 5,000 consumers, 77% of those using AI said it made them more confident in their purchases, and 69% said they were less likely to return items.

On marketing channels, Adobe expects revenue share from affiliates and partners to grow 12% and from social media 17%, ahead of paid search at 4%. Within affiliates, Adobe says cashback and rewards sites account for 36% of traffic and influencers and creators for 22%, so it's worth checking that your affiliate and creator links track properly before the rush.

Final Checks Before BFCM

With mobile and AI traffic growing and Black Friday growing fastest, these are the checks we'd run in the next two weeks.

Test the speed of your top product and collection pages on a mid-range phone, and remove apps you no longer use.
In checkout, confirm express payment options show first on mobile, and place a test order with each payment method.
Schedule your Black Friday promotions with Rollouts or your discount settings, and test discount combinations.
For AI channels, review Agentic Storefronts, confirm your products are eligible for Shopify Catalog, and publish your policies to your knowledge base.
Publish holiday shipping cut-off dates, and check your carrier rates and pickup options.
Set a freeze date after which no theme or app changes go live until December.

This Week and Next

Work through the checklist this week and next, then set your change freeze for mid-November. Have your strongest offers ready for Black Friday as well as Cyber Monday, and make sure every product you want to promote has complete data for search and AI channels.

If you'd like help getting your store ready for BFCM, book a call with our team.

Sources

Holiday ecommerce shopping to hit $275 billion despite consumer strain, according to Adobe Adweek, September 2026
Adobe: U.S. Holiday Shopping Season to Hit Record $275.1 Billion Online, Rising 6.7% YoY Business Wire, September 2026
Adobe: Holiday Shopping Season Drove a Record $257.8 Billion Online with Consumers Embracing Generative AI Tools Adobe, January 2026