Holiday 2025 Was When AI Shopping Assistants Started Driving Real Sales
The final numbers for the 2025 holiday season are in. Adobe counted a record $257.8 billion in US online spending from November 1 to December 31, and traffic to retail sites from generative AI tools grew by 693.4%. Salesforce says AI and agents influenced about 20% of global holiday sales. This is what we take from both reports for 2026 budgets.
Published Feb 11, 2026. Author: Ecomm Guys. 4 min read.
Key Points
- Adobe counted $257.8 billion in US online holiday spending, up 6.8% year over year.
- Traffic to US retail sites from generative AI tools rose 693.4%, from a small base.
- Salesforce says shoppers referred by AI search converted nine times more often than social referrals.
- Mobile drove 56.4% of US online spending, and buy now, pay later reached $20 billion.
- Salesforce saw returns rise 10% and average selling prices up 7%, with order volumes up only slightly.
A Record Season, Built on Cyber Week
Adobe's final numbers show US shoppers spent $257.8 billion online over the season, up 6.8%. On 25 days, spending passed $4 billion, up from 18 days in 2024. Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, brought in $44.2 billion, up 7.7%. Cyber Monday was again the biggest day at $14.25 billion, but Black Friday grew faster, up 9.1% to $11.8 billion, as shoppers took earlier deals.
Salesforce, which measures differently, counted $1.29 trillion in online sales globally and $294 billion in the US, with growth of 7% globally and 4% in the US. It also found that average selling prices rose 7%, while order volumes grew only 3% globally and 1% in the US. In other words, much of the growth came from higher prices.
AI Traffic Grew Fast and Converted Well
The story both companies lead with is AI. Adobe says traffic to retail sites from generative AI tools, meaning shoppers clicking a link from an AI chat or browser, rose 693.4% compared with the prior season. Adobe also notes that the base of users remains modest. AI tools were used most for video games, toys, appliances, electronics, and personal care.
Salesforce found the share of traffic from AI search channels like ChatGPT and Perplexity doubled, and that shoppers referred from those channels converted nine times more often than those from social media. Its larger headline, that AI and agents drove 20% of retail sales, or $262 billion, counts AI recommendations and customer service as well as AI search. Read it as a measure of AI influence across the whole shopping process.
Other Signals Worth Noting
Beyond AI, a few other numbers stand out.
- Mobile drove 56.4% of US online spending, up from 54.5% in 2024, per Adobe.
- Buy now, pay later reached $20 billion in US online spending, up 9.8%, with 82.2% of it on smartphones.
- Discounts pushed shoppers to trade up. Adobe says the share of the most expensive goods sold rose 20% compared with the rest of the year.
- Salesforce found nearly one in five orders used buy online, pick up in store, rising to one in three in the final days before Christmas.
- Salesforce says 14% of global online holiday purchases were returned, a 10% increase, while Adobe saw US returns down 1.2%. The two measure differently, so watch your own return rate.
What It Means for 2026 Budgets
AI traffic is still a small share of most stores' visits, but it's the fastest-growing source and it converts well. That makes a modest, steady budget for product data and AI visibility work easy to justify. The work isn't exotic: complete product attributes, clear policies, and pages that answer the questions shoppers ask.
The price story matters too. If growth came mostly from higher prices, then 2026 gains will depend on conversion and average order value as well as traffic. Mobile checkout speed, express payment options, and clear delivery promises are where we'd spend first. Plan for the season to start earlier, as Black Friday is now growing faster than Cyber Monday.
Set Three Baselines
Pull your own holiday report and set three baselines: AI referral traffic and its conversion rate, mobile conversion rate, and return rate. Then set your 2026 plan around closing the biggest gap, and start holiday preparation in the summer rather than the fall.
We can help you build a 2026 plan from your holiday results. Book a call with our team.
Sources
- Adobe: Holiday Shopping Season Drove a Record $257.8 Billion Online with Consumers Embracing Generative AI Tools Adobe, January 2026
- AI and agents account for $262 billion of 2025 holiday spend Salesforce, January 2026