Adobe's Holiday 2025 Forecast and Where Online Spending Is Headed

Adobe expects US shoppers to spend $253.4 billion online this holiday season, up 5.3%. Growth is slower than last year, mobile is a bigger share than ever, and traffic from AI tools is expected to rise again. With five weeks to go before Black Friday, this is what we'd do with it.

Gifts wrapped in patterned paper with twine and pine cones

Published Oct 22, 2025. Author: Ecomm Guys. 4 min read.

Key Points

Adobe forecasts $253.4 billion in US online sales from November 1 to December 31, up 5.3%.
Cyber Monday should be the biggest day at $14.2 billion, while Black Friday grows faster at $11.7 billion, up 8.3%.
Mobile is expected to reach a record 56.1% of online spend.
Buy Now, Pay Later is expected to drive $20.2 billion, and AI traffic to retail sites is forecast to rise 520%.
With slower growth, conversion and average order value matter more than chasing new traffic.

The Forecast

Adobe released its 2025 holiday forecast on October 6, based on Adobe Analytics data covering more than 1 trillion visits to US retail sites. It expects $253.4 billion in US online spending from November 1 to December 31, up 5.3% year over year. That's growth, but slower than the 8.4% Adobe forecast for 2024.

Cyber Week is expected to bring in $43.7 billion, up 6.3% and 17.2% of the season. Cyber Monday should remain the biggest day at $14.2 billion, up 6.3%. Black Friday is forecast to grow faster, up 8.3% to $11.7 billion, and Thanksgiving to reach $6.4 billion. Adobe expects a record 10 days with more than $5 billion in spending, up from 7 last year.

Mobile and Buy Now, Pay Later

Mobile is expected to account for a record 56.1% of online spending, or $142.7 billion. Adobe notes that in the 2020 holiday season, mobile was just 40%. Buy Now, Pay Later is forecast to drive $20.2 billion, up 11%, with Cyber Monday crossing $1 billion in BNPL spending for the first time. Adobe expects 79% of BNPL spending to happen on mobile.

Put simply, the typical holiday purchase is a phone checkout, often with a payment option beyond a card. If your mobile checkout is slower or harder than desktop, or if you haven't offered BNPL, those are the gaps to look at first.

Discounts and Trading Up

Adobe expects discounts of up to 28% off listed prices, close to last year. Electronics should peak at 28% and toys at 27%. It also expects shoppers to use those discounts to trade up in some categories, with the share of the most expensive goods sold rising 56% in sporting goods and 52% in electronics. Furniture and groceries go the other way, as shoppers choose lower-priced items.

For merchants, that supports promoting higher-end products alongside entry-level ones during Cyber Week.

Adobe also expects the deepest discounts to land during Cyber Week, with Cyber Monday as the last call for the best deals. Black Friday is expected to bring the deepest discounts on TVs, toys, and appliances. Cyber Monday is expected to bring them on electronics, apparel, and computers. If you sell in those categories, time your strongest offers to match when shoppers expect them.

AI Traffic Keeps Growing

Adobe says traffic to US retail sites from generative AI tools rose 1,300% during the 2024 season, and it expects a further 520% rise this year, peaking in the ten days before Thanksgiving. In Adobe's survey of 5,000 US consumers, over a third said they had used an AI service for online shopping, most often for research, product recommendations, and finding deals.

Those shoppers arrive having already compared options. They land on a product page expecting the details the AI tool described. Clear product information, accurate prices, and visible stock matter even more for that traffic.

Our Pre-BFCM Short List

With growth slowing, the stores that do well will convert more of the traffic they already have. In the next few weeks, we'd focus on a short list.

Test checkout on a phone with every payment method, including any BNPL option.
Check site speed on your top landing pages and remove apps you no longer use.
Set up Cyber Week offers now, including on higher-priced products.
Review product titles, descriptions, and stock for your top sellers, for both search and AI tools.
Freeze theme changes a few days before Black Friday.
If you'd like a pre-BFCM review of your store, book a call with our team.

Sources

Adobe: U.S. Holiday Shopping Season to Cross $250 Billion Online, Rising 5.3% YoY Adobe, October 2025
Adobe Forecasts Record $240.8 Billion U.S. Holiday Season Online Adobe, September 2024