What Adobe's Holiday 2024 Forecast Means for Shopify Stores
Adobe expects US shoppers to spend a record $240.8 billion online this holiday season, and more than half of it on phones. With three weeks to go before Black Friday, you'll get more from fixing what you already have than from adding anything new.
Published Nov 6, 2024. Author: Ecomm Guys. 5 min read.
Key Points
- Adobe forecasts $240.8 billion in US online sales from November 1 to December 31, up 8.4% on 2023.
- Mobile is expected to reach a record $128.1 billion, or 53.2% of online spend.
- Cyber Monday should stay the biggest day at $13.2 billion, but Black Friday and Thanksgiving are forecast to grow faster.
- Discounts of up to 30% are expected to push shoppers to trade up to higher-priced goods.
- With weeks left, mobile speed, checkout, and site search are better uses of time than new features.
What Adobe Is Forecasting
Adobe released its 2024 holiday forecast on September 25. It covers November 1 to December 31 and is based on Adobe Analytics data from more than 1 trillion visits to US retail sites. The headline number is $240.8 billion in US online spending, up 8.4% from 2023, when shoppers spent $221.8 billion and growth was 4.9%.
Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, is expected to bring in $40.6 billion, up 7.0%. Cyber Monday should remain the biggest single day at a record $13.2 billion, up 6.1%. Black Friday ($10.8 billion, up 9.9%) and Thanksgiving ($6.1 billion, up 8.7%) are both forecast to grow faster than Cyber Monday as retailers push deals earlier.
These are US figures. Many of the Shopify brands we work with in Canada sell heavily into the US, so the US calendar sets the pace for their season too.
Mobile Is Now the Main Holiday Storefront
Adobe expects a record $128.1 billion to be spent on mobile devices, up 12.8% and equal to 53.2% of online spend. It also expects Buy Now, Pay Later to set records at $18.5 billion for the season, with Cyber Monday the biggest BNPL day yet at $993 million. Adobe notes BNPL spending runs mostly through mobile.
For a Shopify store, that means the version of your site most holiday shoppers see is the phone version. If your team reviews the store on a desktop monitor, you may be checking the wrong experience. Load your top landing pages, collection pages, and checkout on a mid-range phone over a mobile connection and note anything slow or awkward.
Discounts and Trading Up
Adobe expects discounts of up to 30% off listed prices, about the same as 2023. Electronics are forecast to peak at 30% off and toys at 27%. Adobe also found that shoppers who spent the year buying cheaper goods are expected to trade up during the holidays. The share of the most expensive goods sold is forecast to rise 19% compared with pre-season trends, with bigger jumps in sporting goods, electronics, and appliances.
Adobe estimates the response to discounts will add $2 billion to $3 billion in online spend. The practical point for merchants is that premium products can do well in a strong promotion. If you only discount entry-level items, look at whether a deal on a higher-priced product makes sense for your margins.
How Shoppers Will Find Products
Paid search is still the top driver of retail revenue in Adobe's data, with a 28% share earlier in the year. The fastest growth is expected from affiliates and partners, which include influencers, at 7% to 10%. Adobe found influencers converted shoppers 10 times more than social media overall. Traffic to retail sites from generative AI chat tools has also doubled this year, from a small base.
None of these channels work well if the landing page is weak. A shopper who taps an influencer link on a phone needs the product, price, and Add to Cart button to load quickly, with no pop-up in the way.
Where to Spend the Weeks Before BFCM
This close to Black Friday, we advise against launching new features, new apps, or a theme change. Each one adds risk at the worst time. The better return usually comes from fixing what shoppers already use.
- For mobile speed, remove apps you no longer use, compress large hero images, and check that pop-ups don't cover the page on load.
- Test checkout with every payment method, shipping rate, and discount code you plan to run, on a phone, with a real order.
- Search your store for your top 20 products the way a customer would, including common misspellings, and fix empty results.
- Make sure sale collections are sorted by what you want to sell and that sold-out products drop out or move down.
- Set up and test your promotional discounts now, while there's time to fix them.
Your Plan for This Week
Pick the three pages that drive the most revenue in your analytics and test them on a phone this week. Write down every issue, fix the ones that block a purchase first, and freeze the theme a few days before Black Friday so nothing changes during the busiest days.
After the season, compare your own results against Adobe's numbers. If your mobile share or Black Friday growth looks very different, that tells you where to look in the new year.
Want a second set of eyes on your store before BFCM? Book a call with our team.
Sources
- Adobe Forecasts Record $240.8 Billion U.S. Holiday Season Online with Black Friday Growth to Outpace Cyber Monday Adobe, September 2024
- Adobe Expects Record Online Holiday Sales Of $240.8 Billion, Up Over 8% Forbes, September 2024